Understanding Baccarat Charts
- How To Read Baccarat Charts
- Understanding Baccarat Charts
- Understanding Baccarat Charts Reading
- Understanding Baccarat Charts Definition
- Understanding Baccarat Charts Music
- Once you understand that, then the rules for drawing a third card will make much more sense to you. If either the Player hand or the Banker is dealt a total of 8 or 9 in the first two cards (known as a “natural”), then the game is over, and the winning hand is determined on just those cards.
- Baccarat roads are the maps, statistics or formats that help you predict and place the safe bets. You can check your player interface to notice the baccarat roads or roadmaps. What are the different types of baccarat roadmaps? There are 5 most popular baccarat roads; a big road, small road, bead plate, cockroach pig, big eye road.
The baccarat chart is the best way to visualize this: The dealer first finds the player’s third card in the top row of the baccarat chart. Next, the dealer must identify the Banker’s Hand in the left column of the same chart.
Another name for baccarat is “punto banco”. It doesn’t matter which name you prefer. It’s still one of the most classic examples of a casino game in history.
Baccarat is hugely popular with the Asian gambling community. It’s also a mainstay for casino whales and high stakes gamblers. In Macau, baccarat has the same kind of popularity that slot machines have here in the United States.
But some quick analysis of the math and odds behind the game reveals that it’s just a simple guessing game where you have an almost 50/50 chance of winning.
A Baccarat Tutorial: The Basics of How to Play
You’ll find 2 kinds of baccarat available:
- Traditional baccarat – This is the high stakes version of the game you’ll find in high limit areas of casinos throughout the world. This is the version of the game James Bond used to play (before Daniel Craig). It’s played at a big table with 3 dealers and usually a dozen or so players.
- Mini baccarat – This is the same game but with lower stakes. This version of the game runs faster and is played at a smaller table, although some mini baccarat games (called “midi baccarat”) are played for higher stakes at a larger table.
Both versions of the game are played using the same rules, although some of the details can vary.
In some ways, baccarat resembles blackjack. The cards have point values, and multiple decks are used (usually 8, but sometimes 6). But the card values are different from blackjack, as follows:
- Aces are worth 1 point (not 1 or 11 as in blackjack).
- 10s and jacks are worth 0 points (not 10 as in blackjack).
- All the other cards have a point value equal to their rank, just like in blackjack. For example, the 2 of spades is worth 2 points, the 3 of hearts is worth 3 points, etc.
The cards are dealt from a shoe, just like in blackjack. Every time the dealer starts a new shoe, she turns over a card. The point value of the card is the number of cards the dealer burns before dealing. (Except for 10s and face cards. For purposes of deciding how many cards get burned, these count as 10.)
The game uses a cut card, which is put 16 cards from the last card in the shoe. The cut card is the signal to the dealer that it’s time to start over with a new shoe. The new shoe doesn’t start until after the hand where it appears is completed and one additional subsequent hand are dealt.
You start by making one of the following 3 bets:
- Player
- Banker
- Tie
Some games offer 2 additional bets:
- Player pair
- Baker pair
Then the dealer gives the player 2 cards and the banker 2 cards. The score for each hand is calculated by totaling the point values of the cards. The right-most digit is what determines the score.
The player gets a 9 and an 8, which is a total of 17. That’s treated as a total of 7.
Here’s another example:
The banker gets a 5 and a 2, which is a total of 7. That’s also treated as a total of 7.
It’s impossible to bust.
You only have 10 possible scores: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9.
The action doesn’t necessarily end there (but it might). The player and/or the banker might get a 3rd card. The game has elaborate rules for how this is decided, too:
If the player OR the banker has a total of 8 or 9, that’s it. No one gets an additional card.
If neither the player nor the banker has a total of 8 or 9, the player gets another card if he has a total of between 0 and 5.
If the player DOESN’T get another card, and if the dealer has a score of between 0 and 5, the dealer gets an additional card.
If the player DOES get another card, the dealer might or might not get another card, based on the following rules:
- The banker always gets an extra card with a total of 2.
- The banker always gets an extra card with a total of 3 UNLESS the player’s 3rd card is an 8.
- The banker always gets an extra card with a total of 4, UNLESS the player’s 3rd card is a 0, 1, 8, or 9.
- The banker always gets an extra card with a total of 5, UNLESS the player’s 3rd card is a 0, 1, 2, 3, 8, or 9.
- The banker never gets an extra card with a total of 7 UNLESS the player’s 3rd card is a 6 or 7.
- The banker never gets an extra card with a total of 7.
You determine who the winner is by comparing the banker’s score with the player’s score. The higher score wins. The payoffs for each bet are different, though:
- Banker pays off at 19 to 20. (For example, if you bet $20 on the banker, you would win $19. If you bet $100 on the banker, you would win $95. But this isn’t how it’s actually handled at the table. The casino pays you even money on this bet, but they also give you a laminated marker for each 5% commission you owe. They collect that money before starting a shoe or any time the player decides to quit the game and cash out.)
- Player pays off at even money. (For example, if you bet $20 on the player, you would win $20. If you bet $100 on the player, you would win $100.)
- Ties pay off at 8 to 1. (For example, if you bet $20 on a tie, you would win $160.) Player and banker bets are treated as a push in the case of a tie. During a push, you get your original bet back with no winnings. In other words, you don’t lose anything or win anything.
- Pair bets pay off at 11 to 1. (For example, if you bet $20 on a pair, you’d win $220.)
Baccarat Odds, Probability, and House Edge
Given the above rules, it’s not hard to calculate the house edge for this game, but it’s probably worthwhile to explain the concept of the house edge.
The house edge is the amount of each bet that the casino expects to win on average over the long run. It’s expressed as a percentage.
In American roulette, the house edge is 5.26%.
Here’s how that amount is determined:
A roulette wheel has 38 numbers on it. 18 are black, 18 are red, and 2 are green.
If you bet on black or red, you get even money if you win.
If you place 38 bets of $100 each and get mathematically perfect results—landing on each number once—you’ll win 18 bets and lose 20 bets. At $100 each, that’s $1800 in winnings versus $2000 in losses, for a net loss of $200.
Average that $200 by the number of bets you made (38), and you see that you lost an average of $5.26 per bet.
In baccarat, the house edge varies based on which bet you place:
- The banker bet has a house edge of 1.06%
- The player bet has a house edge of 1.24%
- The tie bet has a house edge of 14.36%
- The pair bet has a house edge of 10.36%
Those numbers assume you’re playing in a game with 8 decks. If you’re playing in a game with 6 decks, the house edge is the same for the banker and player bets, but it goes up to 14.44% on the tie bet. The house edge on a pair bet also increases to 11.25%.
If you can find a single deck game, the house edge changes as follows:
- Banker, 1.01%
- Player, 1.29%
- Tie, 15.75%
- Pair, 29.5%
You might also find a casino which offers a baccarat game with a lower commission than 5% on the banker bet. If you can find such a game, this reduces the house edge significantly. At 4%, the house edge goes down to 0.6% in an 8 deck game. At 3%, the house edge is only 0.14%.
If you could find a game which offered the banker bet with no commission at all, you’d actually have an edge of 1.24% over the house. Good luck finding a game like that. Casino managers are good at casino game math, and they tend to avoid offering games to the public where the player gets an edge.
You might also find a casino which offers bigger payouts on player bets or tie bets. For example, you might find a casino that pays off at 1.01 to 1 on the player bet. That reduces the house edge for that bet to 1.04%, making it better than the banker bet.
Some casinos pay off 9 to 1 on a tie bet, too. This reduces the house edge on that bet to 4.84%.
Unless I indicated otherwise somewhere above, all these numbers are for a game with 8 decks.
Egalite Bets
One option I didn’t explain previously was an egalite bet. These bets are common in casinos in England, but rare or unheard-of everywhere else. An egalite bet is just a side bet on a specific event during a baccarat game. (It’s comparable to some of the bets available at the craps table.)
These bets and their payouts vary based on which casino you’re playing.
One common example is to be able to bet on a specific tie, like 0-0 or 1-1. These usually pay off at between 45 to 1 and 225 to 1, depending on the specific bet. (Some ties are more likely than others.)
A bet on 6 or 7 tie pays off at 45 to 1, and that’s the most likely tie to hit.
A bet on 2 pays off at 225 to 1. That’s the least likely tie to hit.
All these bets have one thing in common—a high house edge. None of them have a house edge of less than 10%, in fact.
Some casinos also allow you to bet on ranges, like 1-3 or 4-5. The payoffs for these are lower, of course, because you have more opportunities to win. A common payoff for a 1-3 egalite might be 70 to 1, but the house edge on that bet is still 10.86%.
Some of the ranges offer bet odds for the player, though. A 4-5 egalite has a house edge of just 7.28%. That’s still a lousy bet, but it’s not AS lousy.
Experienced casino players refer to a bet with a house edge this high as a “sucker bet”.
Baccarat Strategies, Tips, and Advice
How To Read Baccarat Charts
Playing against a lower house edge is always better than playing against a higher house edge. That’s a gambling maxim you can take to your grave with you.
In the case of baccarat, the bet with the lowest house edge is the banker bet, so that’s the only bet you should make—ever.
Even if you’re playing a hunch, you should skip the tie bet or the pair bet. The house edge is too high.
If you believe in hunches, you might be able to make a case for a player bet. I don’t believe in hunches or luck, though.
I believe in math.
If you want an accurate strategy for baccarat, you can some it up in a single sentence:
You will find, though, that baccarat tables provide pencils and score cards so that you can follow the trends and adjust your betting accordingly.
This is a fool’s errand.
Yes, you’ll see winning streaks and losing streaks on a specific bet.
You’ll be tempted to ride that winning streak by switching your bet.
Or you’ll be tempted to bet the other way, assuming the dealer bet couldn’t possibly win again after having won so many times in a row.
Don’t bother.
Trends are only visible in hindsight. They have no effect on the future.
In fact, there’s even a phrase that explains this false belief. It’s called the gambler’s fallacy.
Blackjack players might wonder whether you can get an edge at baccarat by counting cards. Theoretically, this might be possible, but my understanding is that getting an edge would be very rare, and it wouldn’t be enough to get you an overall edge.
But blackjack players also have an advantage gambling method called “dealer tells”. This is when the dealer does something to indicate to the player the strength of their hand.
You don’t run into this exact same situation in baccarat, but you do occasionally run into a dealer who accidentally flashes the next card before you’re required to place your next bet.
If you know what the first card in a round of baccarat is, you get an advantage, and you can bet accordingly.
The Wizard of Odds has a chart detailing the bet with the best expectation based on which card gets flashed. Here are the correct bets based on the exposed card:
- 0, A, 2, 3, 4, or 5 – Bet on the banker.
- 6, 7, 8, or 9 – Bet on the player.
The player’s edge over the casino in this situation comes to 6.76%, which is a huge edge to have over the casino.
Here’s a word of advice for novices, too:
If you notice this happening at the baccarat table, be discreet. If the casino figures out what you’re up to, they’ll adjust accordingly, and you’ll lose whatever you might have gained.
EZ Baccarat and Counting Cards
EZ Baccarat is a variation where you get paid even money on a banker bet and don’t have to pay commission. To make up for this, the casino considers a win when the banker has a total of 7 with 3 cards a push instead of a win.
They also add 2 additional side bets:
- The Panda 8 Bet – This bet pays off at 25 to 1 if the banker has a 3-card total of 8.
- The Dragon 7 Bet – This bet pays off at 40 to 1 if the banker has a 3-card total of 7.
The house edge for the Panda 8 bet is 10.19%.
In this game, you can use card counting to get an edge. Read our detailed guide to card counting for an explanation of why counting cards works in blackjack. With a little imagination, you can see how it would also be applicable to EZ Baccarat.
Here are the card values to use:
- 0, 1, and 2 count as +1
- 3, 4, 5, and 8 count as -2
- 6 and 7 count as -1
- 9 counts as +4
When the count gets over 11, you have a slight advantage (0.01% or 0.02%) over the casino.
But it might be fun if you’re into that sort of thing.
You can read more about card counting with these side bets at Discount Gambling.
Conclusion
Baccarat is a fun, slow-paced, elegant game that requires no skill on the part of the player. If you can remember to always bet on the banker, you can play a game with a relatively low house edge and have a lot of fun.
If you want to get an edge at EZ Baccarat, you can pull it off by counting cards. You might also be able to find a dealer who’s flashing her cards while she deals. That can get you an edge, too.
Both scenarios require more effort than their worth, though. If you want to become an advantage player, I still think your best bet is to learn to count cards in blackjack.
Please enable JavaScript to view the comments powered by Disqus.- Appendices
- Baccarat Analysis
- Miscellaneous
Introduction
Baccarat is a game steeped in superstition. The vast majority of players keep careful track of the shoe history, either on paper or with the aid of screens that show every hand since the shoe began. There are various ways of recording this information. The companies that market the screens that display the shoe history present it in various ways, according to the most popular methods of trying to define patterns.
Before going further, let me give my usual comment on notation. When referring to an actual bet, I use capital letters. When referring to the player playing the game, I use lower case. I invite the rest of the world to follow this convention, to help avoid confusion.
For those who don't know me, let me take a moment to say that all this effort at trying to predict the next hand is a waste of time. For all practical purposes, the odds are the same for every hand, and the past history does not matter. Now before the perfectionists out there write to me, yes, I know if you had the use of a computer, a card counter could make computer-perfect decisions according to the composition of the remaining cards, which would very rarely result in an advantage on some bets. However, that is not what I'm talking about it. I'm saying that trying to find a pattern in past Player and Banker wins is as useless as predicting the next color in roulette (on a fair wheel) according to past reds and blacks.
Although I personally don't play baccarat, I have wondered for years about some of the tables in those displays of the shoe history. The staff at the Venetian has been very helpful in helping me understand, so that I may enlighten the rest of the world. So, with the introductions out of the way, let's get started. Here is a picture of a typical sign, seen at the Venetian. There are various components of display, which I will address individually.
How to Read Them
Bead Plate
This section above is called the 'bead plate.' It used to be that players could buy a tray with cubes with sides noting Player, Banker, and Tie wins. Wins are recorded as follows:
- Blue = Player win
- Red = Banker win
- Green = Tie win
The player starts in the upper left hand corner and makes his way down. When he reaches the bottom row, he moves over one column to the right and back to the top row.
Big Road
The next section, pictured above, is called the 'Big Road.' This primarily keeps track of Player and Banker wins. Tie and pair wins are also noted with slashes and dots. To be specific, a tie is noted with a green line through the previous Player or Banker win. A Player pair is noted with a blue dot in the lower right corner of the hand it occurred in. A Banker pair with a red dot in upper left. In the interest of simplicity, in this example there were only Player and Banker wins.Much like in the Bead Plate, the player starts in the upper left, as well as marking Player wins in blue, and Banker wins in red. However, instead of a solid circle, with a Chinese character in the middle, the Big Road has only the blue and red outlines of circles.
Unlike the Bead Plate, in the Big Road the player starts at the top of a new column with each change in Player and Banker winning. Note the grid is six rows deep. In the event there are seven or more consecutive Player or Banker wins, the results will move to the right, creating what is known as a dragon tail. In this example that never happens, as there was never more than four consecutive wins on the same side.
Big Eye Boy
With the next table, it is no longer so obvious what is going on, and it is here where I started to need help. As mentioned before, baccarat players are a very superstitious bunch. While the strategies they use to find patterns can be a complicated topic, one basic truth is they like predictability and repeating patterns. For example, if the last 12 hands were BBBPPPBBBPPP, I would bet that everybody at the table would bet on the Banker the next hand. Note how wins happen in groups of three. The Big Eye Boy table is useful in gauging how repetitive the shoe is. Red entries are a sign of repetition, and blue entries are a sign of a chaotic, 'choppy' shoe. It is important to note that in the Big Eye Boy table, blue and red are not associated with Player and Banker wins, as they are on the previous two tables.
The first entry in the Big Eye Boy table is the hand after the first entry in the second column of the Big Road, so that there is enough information to judge if a pattern is developing or not. Here is where the air starts to get thin, so pay attention. Every entry in the Big Eye Boy table, as well as the next two tables, will refer to a specific entry in the Big Road. Each entry in the Big Eye Boy is recorded as follows:
Understanding Baccarat Charts
- If the hand in question causes a new column in the Big Road, then compare the previous two columns in the Big Road. If they are the same in depth, then record a red circle in the Big Eye Boy. If they are not, then record a blue circle.
- If the hand in question is the same outcome as the previous hand (skipping ties), then compare the cell to the left of the newly created entry in the Big Road with the cell directly above that one. If these two cells are the same, whether both Player, both Banker, or both blank; then mark a red in the Big Eye Boy. Otherwise, mark a blue.
In other words, consider the latest entry in the Big Road. Then, move one cell to the left. Then, move up. If the move up does not result in a change, mark red, if it does, mark blue.
In the event the Big Road forms a dragon tail, for purposes of the Big Eye Boy as well as the Small Road and Cockroach Pig, assume that the Big Road is infinitely deep, and ask yourself what would have happened under that assumption.
Note that if the Big Road consisted entirely of an alternating pattern of x Player wins with x Banker wins, then the Big Eye Boy would be entirely red.
To help with this part, I explain below every entry in the Big Eye Boy table that follows. I put the results in Excel so you could refer to the exact points in the grid I'm referring to.
For example, the first entry shows cell A1 on the Big Eye Boy table. This corresponds to the same hand represented in cell C1 of the Big Road table. Since cell C1 is the beginning of a new column, we check if the previous two columns are equal in length. They are, so we color the Big Eye Boy red for cell A1.
Big Road
Understanding Baccarat Charts Reading
Big Eye Boy
Big Eye Boy — Play by Play
| Big Eye Boy Cell | Big Road Cell | Color | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| A1 | |||
| B1 | |||
| A1 | C1 | Red | Columns A and B equal in length |
| B1 | C2 | Blue | B1 and B2 don't match |
| B2 | D1 | Blue | Columns B and C unequal in length |
| B3 | E1 | Blue | Columns C and D unequal in length |
| B4 | E2 | Blue | D1 and D2 don't match |
| C1 | E3 | Red | D2 and D3 match |
| C2 | E4 | Red | D3 and D4 match |
| D1 | F1 | Blue | Columns D and E unequal in length |
| D2 | G1 | Blue | Columns E and F unequal in length |
| E1 | HI | Red | Columns F and G equal in length |
| E2 | I1 | Red | Columns G and H equal in length |
| F1 | I2 | Blue | H1 and H2 don't match |
| F2 | J1 | Blue | Columns H and I unequal in length |
| G1 | J2 | Red | I1 and I2 match |
| H1 | J3 | Blue | I2 and I3 don't match |
| H2 | K1 | Blue | Columns I and J unequal in length |
| I1 | K2 | Red | J1 and J2 match |
| I2 | K3 | Red | J2 and J3 match |
| I3 | L1 | Red | Columns J and K equal in length |
| I4 | L2 | Red | K1 and K2 match |
| J1 | M1 | Blue | Columns K and L unequal in length |
| J2 | N1 | Blue | Columns L and M unequal in length |
| J3 | N2 | Blue | M1 and M2 don't match |
| K1 | N3 | Red | M2 and M3 match |
| L1 | O1 | Blue | Columns M and N unequal in length |
| M1 | O2 | Red | N1 and N2 match |
| N1 | P1 | Blue | Columns N and O unequal in length |
| O1 | P2 | Red | O1 and O2 equal |
| O2 | Q1 | Red | Columns O and P equal in length |
| P1 | R1 | Blue | Columns P and Q unequal in length |
| Q1 | S1 | Red | Columns Q and R equal in length |
| R1 | S2 | Blue | R1 and R2 don't match |
| S1 | S3 | Red | R2 and R3 match |
| T1 | T1 | Blue | Columns R and S unequal in length |
| U1 | T2 | Red | S1 and S2 match |
| U2 | T3 | Red | S2 and S3 match |
| U3 | U1 | Red | Columns S and T equal in length |
| U4 | U2 | Red | T1 and T2 match |
| V1 | V1 | Red | Columns T and U equal in length |
| W1 | V2 | Red | U1 and U2 match |
| W2 | W1 | Blue | Columns U and V unequal in length |
| X1 | X1 | Blue | Columns V and W unequal in length |
| Y1 | Y1 | Red | Columns W and X equal in length |
| Z1 | Y2 | Blue | X1 and X2 don't match |
| AA1 | Y3 | Red | X2 and X3 match |
| AB1 | Z1 | Blue | Columns X and Y unequal in length |
| AB2 | AA1 | Blue | Columns Y and Z unequal in length |
| AB3 | AA2 | Blue | AA1 and AA2 don't match |
| AB4 | AB1 | Blue | Columns Z and AA unequal in length |
| AB5 | AC1 | Blue | Columns AA and AB unequal in length |
| AB6 | AC2 | Blue | AB1 and AB2 don't match |
| AC1 | AC3 | Red | AB2 and AB3 match |
| AD1 | AD1 | Blue | Columns AB and AC unequal in length |
| AD2 | AE1 | Blue | Columns AC and AD unequal in length |
| AD3 | AE2 | Blue | AD1 and AD2 don't match |
| AE1 | AE3 | Red | AD2 and AD3 match |
| AE2 | AE4 | Red | AD3 and AD4 match |
| AF1 | AF1 | Blue | Columns AD and AE unequal in length |
| AF2 | AG1 | Blue | Columns AE and AF unequal in length |
| AG1 | AH1 | Red | Columns AF and AG equal in length |
| AG2 | AI1 | Red | Columns AG and AH equal in length |
| AG3 | AJ1 | Red | Columns AH and AI equal in length |
| AH1 | AJ2 | Blue | AI1 and AI2 don't match |
| AI1 | AJ3 | Red | AI2 and AI3 match |
| AJ1 | AK1 | Blue | Columns AI and AJ unequal in length |
| AJ2 | AL1 | Blue | Columns AJ and AK unequal in length |
Small Road
The next table, in the bottom left of the display, is the 'Small Road.' The Small Road works exactly like the Big Eye Boy, except it skips the column to the left of the current column in the Big Road. To have enough information to go on, the Small Road must wait until the entry after the first entry in the third column of the Big Road. Here is exactly how the Small Road is recorded.
- If the hand in question causes a new column in the Big Road, then compare the first and third columns to the left of the new column in the Big Road. If they are the same in depth, then record a red circle in the Small Road. If they are not, then record a blue circle.
- If the hand in question is the same outcome as the previous hand (skipping ties), then compare the cell two cells to the left of the newly created entry in the Big Road with the cell directly above that one. If these two cells are the same, whether both Player, both Banker, or both blank; then mark a red in the Small Road. Otherwise, mark a blue.
In other words, consider the latest entry in the Big Road. Then, move two cells to the left. Then, move up. If the move up does not result in a change, mark red, if it does, mark blue.
The Small Road in the sign pictured was too big to fit in the grid, so the first four columns dropped off. They would have been BBRRBR.
Cockroach Pig
Understanding Baccarat Charts Definition
The next table, in the bottom right of the display, is 'Cockroach Pig.' The Cockroach works exactly like the Small Road, except it skips two columns to the left of the current column in the Big Road. To have enough information to go on, the Cockroach Pig must wait until the entry after the first entry in the fourth column of the Big Road. Here is exactly how the Cockroach Pig is recorded.
- If the hand in question causes a new column in the Big Road then compare the first and fourth columns to the left of the new column in the Big Road. If they are the same in depth, then record a red circle in the Cockroach Pig. If they are not, then record a blue circle.
- If the hand in question is the same outcome as the previous hand (skipping ties), then compare the cell three cells to the left of the newly created entry in the Big Road with the cell directly above that one. If these two cells are the same, whether both Player, both Banker, or both blank; then mark a red in the Cockroach Pig. Otherwise, mark a blue.
In other words, consider the latest entry in the Big Road. Then, move three cells to the left. Then, move up. If the move up does not result in a change, mark red, if it does, mark blue.
Other Statistics
Finally, the above picture shows the upper right part of the display. The left part shows overall shoe statistics for how often each bet won. This is not a very realistic example, as I put in Player and Banker wins only, for purposes of example. The right part shows what will happen on the Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig according to whether the next hand is a Player or Banker win.
Links
Fate in the cards: understanding baccarat trends (part 1) and (part 2) by Andrew W Scott
Acknowledgements
Thanks to the friendly and helpful staff at the Venetian for suffering my many questions about this topic and letting me take pictures of their sign.