Clustering Illusion Example
Explanations > Theories > Illusion of Asymmetric Insight
The illusion is due to selective thinking based on a counterintuitive but false assumption regarding statistical odds. For example, it strikes most people as unexpected if heads comes up four times in a row during a series of coin flips. However, in a series of 20 flips, there is a 50% chance of getting four heads in a row (Gilovich). The clustering illusion is the tendency to erroneously consider the inevitable 'streaks' or 'clusters' arising in small samples from random distributions to be non-random. The illusion is caused by a human tendency to underpredict the amount of variability likely to appear in a small sample. The Clustering Illusion The reasoning behind the gambler’s fallacy is something that is commonly referred to as the clustering illusion. The clustering illusion is the idea that people are prone to view streaks of random events as being non-random in the short term.
Description Research Example So What? See also References
Clustering Illusion Bias. The tendency to see patterns in random events. It is key to various gambling. The clustering illusion refers to the natural human tendency to 'see patterns where actually none exist.' Since according to a branch of mathematics known as Ramsey Theory complete mathematical disorder in any physical system is an impossibility, it may be more correct to state, however, that the clustering illusion refers to the natural human tendency to associate some meaning to certain.
Description
We commonly believe that we understand others better than they understand us.
The rationale for this stems from our external, objective viewpoint and the assumption that the other person has a significant blind self, whilst our own blind self is small.
There is also asymmetry in the reverse situation -- we believe we understand ourselves better than others understand us and may feel insulted if they try to show they understand us more than we do.
The same effect happens for groups, where the in-group believes they understand out-groups better than out-groups understand them.
Overall, this is a position where we generally assume we know more than others, perhaps because we know more about what we know.
Research
Pronin et al found that college roommates believed that they knew themselves better than their roommates knew themselves.
Example
In an argument with another person you tell them what they are like in great detail because clearly they have very little self-knowledge. They argue back telling you things about yourself that are clearly wrong or that you knew anyway. How can people be so stupid?
So What?
Using it
Be cautious about judging others and assumptions that they do not know themselves.
Defending
When others try to read your mind, forgive them their foolishness. Do not be drawn into slanging matches.
See also
References
Clustering Illusion
The clustering illusion is one of the ways that reasoning can be based on one of the three fallacies of Agrippa's trilemma. Whenever a logical fallacy is committed, the fallacy has its roots in Agrippa's trilemma. All human thought (without Divine revelation) is based on one of three unhappy possibilities. These three possibilities are infinite regress, circular reasoning, or axiomatic thinking. This problem is known as Agrippa's trilemma. Some have claimed that only logic and math can be known without Divine revelation; however, that is not true. There is no reason to trust either logic or math without Divine revelation. Science is also limited to the pragmatic because of the weakness on human reasoning, which is known as Agrippa's trilemma.
The Clustering Illusion occurs when the clustering of events that naturally takes place in a random process are not really random events. This fallacy is a statistical fallacy and usually occurs when the sample size is too small or non-representative. One thing that should be noted is the fact that God controls what we call random processes. He uses these processes to bless those who are following Him or to test them and prepare them to rule in the Kingdom of God. (We know this by Divine revelation) That means that there are no truly random processes. However, what we call random processes are merely examples of how, in His faithfulness, God is consistent. We know of God's active role through revelation.
Examples of the Clustering Illusion
In a series of ten coin flips, there is a 50% chance of having four heads (or tails) in a row.
The Forever 27 Club: fans think it's strange that several rising music stars died at 27 years old.
Sometimes, Christians make the mistake of thinking that clustering illusions are signs from God that they should do one thing or another.
When God is going to reveal His will to you and you are open to His leading, He will make His will plain to you. God speaks through Scripture about how He reveals His will.
Author/Compiler
Last updated: Sep, 2014
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